Transcript
Introduction
Patrick
My guest this week is Annie Duke, and the topic of our discussion is how to improve decision-making. We break decisions down into their component parts, values, beliefs, decisions, randomness and outcomes. After diving into each, we discuss how to make better decisions, how to work in group settings and how to harness the power of tribes and identity to improve our behavior. Annie has thought about this topic as much as anyone and her methods for getting us to think in probabilities, and to stop evaluating decisions based on outcomes tainted by randomness will be useful for anyone listening. Please enjoy.
Annie
Here's the main thing I think about, there's so much information out there, we know what's right to do. So we can look across lots and lots and lots of data and say for the average person who's investing, what's the best thing for them to do? And we know, don't be an active investor, put your money in, walk away and let it sit. And we know that, that's true, but what's interesting about that is that despite the fact that that information is readily available, that people know it, people don't do it. And so the question that I'm always trying to think about is why? And I think about it in two ways, one is, how much are we communicating with people in a way that activates identity and tribe in a really positive and good way, and then how are we thinking about what the rules of the game are?