Transcript
Introduction
Patrick
My guest today is Chad Cascarilla, here to discuss some of the tail risks in the economy and markets as of March 24th in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic. Chad was one of the most successful investors during the global financial crises, with a specialty in the banking and finance systems. He now runs Paxos, a trust company that trades and custodies these unique products like PAX Gold, Bitcoin, and other tokenized assets including simple PAX Dollars. I feel it's important to avoid confirmation bias in times like this, and not just talk to people who are optimistic or long, and while I still believe this is ultimately a positive and optimistic conversation, Chad acknowledges and outlines scenarios that few are talking about yet in markets. Please enjoy.
Chad, it's not that long since our last conversation, but the world has changed quite a bit. I thought it would be fun given your deep expertise in the banking system, a deep history in sort of the big short trade and the last financial crisis, and a facility with looking through sensitive parts of the system in markets like this, that you'd be a great guest to have on to discuss where we sit today and where we go from here. So, to level set with the audience, the S&P 500's down about 35%, which is no joke and it's the fastest decline of that magnitude that we've ever seen. I'd love to begin with this porridge analogy that you mentioned right before we started recording and use that as a jump-off point to discuss what the scenarios we may see from here, how you handicap those and what you would recommend investors and maybe even business people do in those three scenarios.