Glue Guys
Episode 35 The Price of Risk is Lower Than You Think
Glue Guys

Episode 35: The Price of Risk is Lower Than You Think

Glue Guys

Episode 35

The Price of Risk is Lower Than You Think

Shane Battier, Ravi Gupta and Alex Smith are the hosts of Glue Guys, an exploration of their favorite lessons from the worlds of sports and business. We cover the parallels between venture capital and draft strategies, why playing it safe often leads to frustration, and how executives misjudge the complex interplay between luck and skill.

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Show Notes:

(00:00:00) Welcome to Glue Guys

(00:03:00) Quarterbacks: The High-Risk, High-Reward Picks

(00:04:08) Comparing Draft Strategies: NFL vs. NBA

(00:07:57) The Role of Luck and Talent in Draft Success

(00:11:46) Venture Capital and Drafting: A Parallel

(00:20:47) Rookie Training Camp Memories

(00:21:30) The Importance of Taking Risks in Sports

(00:22:17) The Frustration of Playing It Safe

(00:23:19) The Value of Bold Leadership

(00:26:04) The Challenge of Predicting Success

(00:27:46) The Risk and Reward of Draft Picks

(00:34:36) Balancing Boldness and Caution

(00:37:01) The Role of Luck and Skill in Success

The Price of Risk is Lower Than You Think

Quarterback Gambles: Worth the Risk?

Alex
This draft in particular, it's interesting to me because it's 20 years ago. I was drafted in '05. Here we are, 2005, I'm 40 years old. It was half a lifetime ago, literally half a lifetime ago that I was drafted.

And so every time this time of year comes around, it obviously brings up a ton of memories. All the hoopla and prognosticators and the up and down. Obviously this year, Shador, where's he gonna go? Some people are very high on him, other people have him falling.

It played out my year obviously with Aaron, and I just find it fascinating. It brings up a ton of memories for me, but I do find the crux of the quarterback fascinating in the sense that teams overreach for QBs every single year in the draft. Every single year.

They're overvalued and therefore historically have the lowest hit rate. I think I've said this before. It's historical data. The lowest hit rate of any position of first-round picks is quarterbacks by far. However, it's clearly the most important position in football.

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