Invest Like The Best
Episode 110 Quant in Private Markets
Invest Like The Best

Episode 110: Quant in Private Markets

Invest Like The Best

Episode 110

Quant in Private Markets

Ryan is the co-founder of CircleUp, which brings a quantitative approach to private markets. We cover how to use computer vision to analyze consumer brands, the major predictive factors they've uncovered, and what the future for quant in private markets might look like.

[00:01:39] – (First Question) – Formation of Helio

[00:06:57] – How they handle the relationship building needed to make investments in private markets

[00:10:26] – Why consumer and retail are interesting spaces to apply their quantitative approach in private markets

[00:12:54] – Searching for new relevant data

[00:16:14] – How do they stay ahead of the commoditization of uniqueness

[00:18:00] – Dominant predictive factors in this world

[00:21:05] – Which is more important, relative value or rate of change

[00:21:48] – What does the data say about online sales vs offline (being in a store)

[00:23:30] – Variable that consumer investors think matters but doesn’t

[00:24:53] – Valuing companies and accounting for mis-pricings

[00:26:41] – Goes through the process using Liquid Ivy as an example

[00:28:46] – Most interesting sub-categories

[00:29:33] – Future for this model

[00:35:19] – Other categories outside consumer and retail that interest Ryan

[00:36:28] – Biggest challenges for CircleUp as a business

[00:38:46] – Handicapping their earnings expectations

[00:41:36] – Take on the VC/PE landscape

[00:43:03] – The types of models that are most interesting to the team

[00:45:05] – Quantitative elements of brand that are most interesting

[00:47:30] – Most unique brand and distribution strategy he’s come across

[00:53:27] – Who has influenced Ryan the most

[00:54:37] – His personal values

[00:55:51] – More people who had an influence on Ryan

[00:57:07] – Thoughts on goal setting at the company

[00:59:29] – Unchangeable factors that shape their long-term vision

[01:02:01] – Most interesting individual conversation as part of this journey

[01:04:02] – If he could only keep one dataset, what would he keep

[01:05:09] – The kindest thing anyone has done for Ryan

Quant in Private Markets

Introduction

Patrick
My guest this week is Ryan Caldbeck, a private equity investor who wants to bring quantitative rigor to the private markets. Ryan is a CEO of CircleUp, which uses a system it calls Helio to identify attractive investments in early stage consumer brands. While I am of course a fan of quantitative investing, I also know from experience how much harder private markets are than public markets when it comes to the transactions themselves. We discuss this, and many other potential roadblocks to bringing models to private markets. Using many individual companies as examples, Ryan explains some of the predictive factors they've uncovered in their research. We also discusse which parts of the private markets might be infiltrated by quant processes first, and which may never be. I expect many more to go on a journey similar to Ryan's in the years to come. His serves as an interesting example for ambitious investors out there. Please enjoy our conversation.

What is Helio?

Access the full transcript
Sign in or register to view episode transcripts.

Contact

Get in touch at help@joincollossus.com