Transcript
Introduction
Patrick
My guest today is Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital, a leading investment manager, and one of the world's largest distressed debt investors. In our conversation, we discuss takeaways from the market selloff and rapid recovery in 2020, the importance of assessing both quantitative and qualitative factors in markets, and the benefits Howard has realized from a career of writing. I hope you enjoy this great conversation with Howard Marks.
Risk & Uncertainty
Patrick
So Howard, I've toyed with where we might begin what will surely be a wide-ranging conversation. I'm going to start really broad, which is to ask you if you think forward 50 or 100 years, what big ideas of yours that you've returned to over your career are you most confident will stand the test of time?
Howard
I actually think that in terms of specific contributions the greatest one I've made is the modification of the capital market line through the imposition of some probability distributions to indicate that not only when risk increases does expected return increase but so does uncertainty. And you know, I indicate that by superimposing these bell-shaped curves turned on their sides. And I think that it's an extremely good way to understand the meaning of risk, frankly. But I'm not aware that anybody's picked it up and I'm not aware that anybody ever will. I think that's very important.